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Probability & Counting: Geometric math: math first success on 3rd?

Combinations, conditional probability.

Try the problem

Geometric p=1/2p=1/2: P(X=3)P(X=3) first success on 3rd?

Hint and answer

Concept to use

Bayes intro.

Hint

(1−p)2p(1-p)^2 p.

Answer

1/8

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